The province released its yearly freeze-up report once the ground was solidly frozen and plenty of snow had fallen.

In that, they studied some of the current moisture reserves for soil across the province, as well as water levels in major rivers.

The outlook takes into account how those reserves fared at the end of the growing season, how much rain fell during the fall, and how quickly that was frozen by the cold.

Sean Osmar, the communications manager for the Water Security Agency, explains why it might be a bit drier.

"The preliminary report as we head into winter, as we move from fall into the freeze-up here, it's a little drier than normal across most of the province. We had lower-than-normal precipitation in the late summer and fall, which resulted in drier-than-normal soil conditions across most of the province, including the southeast."

Reservoirs seem to be in good condition, with some of the major sources having better levels than they've had the last few years.

"The major reservoirs like Grant Devine Lake are actually in pretty good condition," said Osmar, "The levels are the best since 2019. The major river systems, the Souris, the Qu’Appelle the Saskatchewan river system, they're all at or near normal levels for this time of year."

One factor which may make these predictions take a curve is a brief warming period near the end of November that could affect moisture levels.

Osmar says it's too soon to guess how that could change things.

"Depending on how that water melted and got into the soil, it could either really help soil conditions or what it might cause, if it freezes up and then when the runoff comes that water has nowhere to go into the soil because it's frozen and it starts to run off. It's too early to tell what the outcome will be.